{"id":72,"date":"2008-04-08T22:27:08","date_gmt":"2008-04-09T02:27:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/metcaffeination.net\/weblog\/?p=72"},"modified":"2008-04-08T22:27:08","modified_gmt":"2008-04-09T02:27:08","slug":"march-madness-wrap-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/metcaffeination.net\/weblog\/2008\/04\/08\/march-madness-wrap-up\/","title":{"rendered":"March Madness wrap-up"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Well, I didn&#8217;t place in the top two of the March Madness pool I entered this year, but both my brackets did manage to beat all my other family members&#8217; brackets. As I wrote in <a href=\"http:\/\/metcaffeination.net\/weblog\/2008\/03\/20\/my-march-madness\/\">my previous entry<\/a>, I also filled out a third bracket, based entirely on a <a href=\"http:\/\/kenpom.com\/stats.php\">sophisticated ratings scheme<\/a>. I entered <a href=\"http:\/\/projects.washingtonpost.com\/ncaa\/madness\/bracket\/view\/?2747\">this bracket<\/a> in the <a href=\"http:\/\/games.espn.go.com\/tcmen\/entry?entryID=3651043\">ESPN<\/a> and<a href=\"http:\/\/projects.washingtonpost.com\/ncaa\/madness\/standings\/\"> Washington Post<\/a> tourney contests, but not the pool, as it was too boring to fill out. My loss!<\/p>\n<p>Out of 5898 entries in the Washington Post pool, this third bracket placed 52nd; out of what I think were about 3 million ESPN brackets, it finished 33229th. If I had entered it in my brother&#8217;s pool, it would have\u00a0scored 465 points and won.<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s have a look at round-by-round performance to answer some bracket questions.<\/p>\n<table border=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<th>1st<\/th>\n<th>S16<\/th>\n<th>E8<\/th>\n<th>F4<\/th>\n<th>semi<\/th>\n<th>champ<\/th>\n<th>PTS<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>My brackets<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/projects.washingtonpost.com\/ncaa\/madness\/bracket\/view\/?2699\">pundits<\/a><\/td>\n<td>24<\/td>\n<td>9<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>385<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/projects.washingtonpost.com\/ncaa\/madness\/bracket\/view\/?4537\">Statistics<\/a><\/td>\n<td>22<\/td>\n<td>10<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>400<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/projects.washingtonpost.com\/ncaa\/madness\/bracket\/view\/?2747\">PYTHAG<\/a><\/td>\n<td>24<\/td>\n<td>12<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>465<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Contest winners<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/games.espn.go.com\/tcmen\/entry?entryID=2928022\">ESPN winner<\/a><\/td>\n<td>26<\/td>\n<td>13<\/td>\n<td>9<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>555<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/projects.washingtonpost.com\/ncaa\/madness\/bracket\/view\/?2451\">WaPost winner<\/a><\/td>\n<td>26<\/td>\n<td>8<\/td>\n<td>7<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>475<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/sportsillustrated.cnn.com\/basketball\/ncaa\/men\/2008\/ncaa_tourney\/brackets\/experts\/index.html?eref=T1\">CBS pundits<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/splnexperts.mayhem.sportsline.com\/print\/brackets\/printable-bracket\/1\/16\/1\/\">Denis Dodd<\/a><\/td>\n<td>23<\/td>\n<td>11<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>360<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/splnexperts.mayhem.sportsline.com\/print\/brackets\/printable-bracket\/1\/10\/1\/\">Michael Freeman<\/a><\/td>\n<td>24<\/td>\n<td>9<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>290<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/splnexperts.mayhem.sportsline.com\/print\/brackets\/printable-bracket\/1\/8\/1\/\">Gary Parrish<\/a><\/td>\n<td>23<\/td>\n<td>9<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>380<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/splnexperts.mayhem.sportsline.com\/print\/brackets\/printable-bracket\/1\/7\/1\/\">Brian De Los Santos<\/a><\/td>\n<td>23<\/td>\n<td>9<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>335<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/splnexperts.mayhem.sportsline.com\/print\/brackets\/printable-bracket\/1\/5\/1\/\">Gregg Doyel<\/a><\/td>\n<td>22<\/td>\n<td>11<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>355<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Washington Post pundit<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-dyn\/content\/graphic\/2008\/03\/17\/GR2008031700635.html\">Tony Kornheiser<\/a><\/td>\n<td>21<\/td>\n<td>9<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>355<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/sportsillustrated.cnn.com\/basketball\/ncaa\/men\/2008\/ncaa_tourney\/brackets\/experts\/index.html?eref=T1\">CNN\/SI pundits<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/sportsillustrated.cnn.com\/basketball\/ncaa\/men\/2008\/ncaa_tourney\/brackets\/experts\/luke_winn.html\">Luke Winn<\/a><\/td>\n<td>24<\/td>\n<td>11<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>360<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/sportsillustrated.cnn.com\/basketball\/ncaa\/men\/2008\/ncaa_tourney\/brackets\/experts\/grant_wahl.html\">Grant Wahl<\/a><\/td>\n<td>23<\/td>\n<td>10<\/td>\n<td>7<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>385<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/sportsillustrated.cnn.com\/basketball\/ncaa\/men\/2008\/ncaa_tourney\/brackets\/experts\/stewart_mandel.html\">Stewart Mandel<\/a><\/td>\n<td>23<\/td>\n<td>10<\/td>\n<td>7<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>380<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/sportsillustrated.cnn.com\/basketball\/ncaa\/men\/2008\/ncaa_tourney\/brackets\/experts\/seth_davis.html\">Seth Davis<\/a><\/td>\n<td>20<\/td>\n<td>9<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>345<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/sportsillustrated.cnn.com\/basketball\/ncaa\/men\/2008\/ncaa_tourney\/brackets\/experts\/kelli_anderson.html\">Kelli Anderson<\/a><\/td>\n<td>23<\/td>\n<td>11<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>360<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>How did the sports pundits do?<\/strong> Not very well.<sup><a href=\"#footnote_0_72\" id=\"identifier_0_72\" class=\"footnote-link footnote-identifier-link\" title=\"At least for cheap-o non-ESPN Insider folks like me, the ESPN pundits&rsquo; complete brackets weren&rsquo;t made available. They did better picking the final four than the CBS or CNN\/SI pundits so perhaps they would have done better.\">1<\/a><\/sup> My brackets beat them.<\/li>\n<li><strong>How did the individual pundits do compared to their consensus?<\/strong> Only CNN\/SI&#8217;s Grant Wahl did as well as the consensus of pundits; the rest had lower scores. Sort of a reversal of the <a href=\"http:\/\/despair.com\/meetings.html\">conventional wisdom on groupthink<\/a>.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li><strong>How well do you have to do to win the ESPN or Washington Post contests?<\/strong>\u00a0You need to nail the elite eight and on out. You need a good showing in the first two rounds, but you don&#8217;t have to be perfect. A handful of people in my brother&#8217;s pool got 26 first-round winners correct, the same number as the winners of the Post and ESPN contests. The Post winner only had 8 of the Sweet 16 correct, and if it had been an entry in my brother&#8217;s pool, it would have been mired somewhere in the middle. The ESPN winner picked 13 of the sweet 16&#8211;very good, of course, but at this point it still wouldn&#8217;t have been the leader in my brother&#8217;s pool.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>It would be interesting to see how well the PYTHAG ratings would have predicted the tournament winners in previous years, although I doubt I&#8217;ll get around to it this year before my interest in bracket-prediction fades. But I think next year I&#8217;ll have to enter a bracket based on it, (and hope that nobody else does the same).<\/p>\n<ol class=\"footnotes\"><li id=\"footnote_0_72\" class=\"footnote\">At least for cheap-o non-ESPN Insider folks like me, the ESPN pundits&#8217; complete brackets weren&#8217;t made available. They did better picking the final four than the CBS or CNN\/SI pundits so perhaps they would have done better. [<a href=\"#identifier_0_72\" class=\"footnote-link footnote-back-link\">&#8617;<\/a>]<\/li><\/ol>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Well, I didn&#8217;t place in the top two of the March Madness pool I entered this year, but both my brackets did manage to beat all my other family members&#8217; brackets. As I wrote in my previous entry, I also filled out a third bracket, based entirely on a sophisticated ratings scheme. I entered this [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12,28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-72","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-doing-the-math","category-sport"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/metcaffeination.net\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/metcaffeination.net\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/metcaffeination.net\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/metcaffeination.net\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/metcaffeination.net\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/metcaffeination.net\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/metcaffeination.net\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/metcaffeination.net\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/metcaffeination.net\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}